GLOBAL WARMING – ROYAL SOCIETY

London – Above us the Waves.

 

 

 

The latest news from top experts on Global Warming: The panel announced that carbon dioxide, CO2, in October 2016, is now measured at 400 parts per million, PPM, of the planet’s atmosphere. This is the tipping point which, in my view, will precipitate more than 2C in temperature; which is melting the Polar ice caps; which will raise the sea-level. Also, in my view, the increased temperature is not reversible for hundreds of years, because CO2 stays in the atmosphere for hundreds of years. We must adapt to higher sea-level and to more severe weather extremes.

My notes – not necessarily accurately expressing the panel’s views:

Prof Brian Cox – Chair
Prof Brian Hoskins (maths)
Prof Kate Jones (biodiversity)
Oliver Morton (The Economist magazine)
Prof Keith Shine (climatology)

CO2 is now 400.97 ppm. Average over last I million years was 300ppm.
Last 200 years temp rise is 0.8C – proved to be due to humans

CO2 is 0.4% of atmosphere, which is 10,000 trillion molecules
One carbon atom uses/ generates 1 unit of energy to join the umbrella but blocks or locks in 100,000 units of energy.  100,000 : 1
Ocean is not mopping up CO2 as previously hoped.

INCREASE IS DEFINITELY FROM HUMAN ACTIVITY
Sea temperature is best guide
Old days, they drew up a bucket of water and stuck a thermometer in it.
Ships records go back 200 years.
Essential to correct/ harmonise old data-sets – e..g from Fahrenheit to Centigrade etc From wooden to iron buckets.

WILDLIFE
Spring is earlier
Autumn is later
Already 1/6th extinction of current species
Forecast 10 billion humans
Animals can Move, Expire or Evolve as planet warms
Will humans die off???

TIPPING POINT – not yet reached, still hope.
Greenland melting will take thousands of years yet. (I don’t think so)
CO2 (greenhouse gas) persists for thousands of years

TARGET
+2C rise, measured since pre-industrial revolution (200 years)
Now we have +1C rise
2C should hold it at 400ppm
So…  it might stay under 2C

NO human extinction – but could be major die back.
More: HUMAN RACE – SURVIVAL

MOST VITAL ACTION – reduce CO2.

ENERGY
Now – we use 79% fossil fuels.
Target by 2030 is for 65% renewables

CLIMATE MODELS use worlds largest computers – getting more accurate.
Feedback of data makes for reliable Expert Systems – daily updates
Most effective counter measure is to increase cloud cover.

GEO-ENGINEERING IDEAS
Basically silly – vacuum out CO2, put  a sunshade in space; scatter particles in the upper atmosphere;
Unsafe, impractical, unpredictable.
Interfering with water, clouds, weather etc over other nations – could cause wars
The crop growing nitrogen cycle has been human geo-engineered and it works.
Bio-fuels are worse than useless – a crappy idea.
Solutions must be global.
Best – is solar power. Solar Soar Solar.

INDIVIDUALS – change your behaviour – home heat/cooling – travel
Most of all – lobby your governments for immediate action.
The UK has had a major influence on helping China go green.
BREXIT will internationally sideline the UK, which led the Paris talks.
Most Brexiteers are also climate-change-deniers – and vote for Trump.

CURRENT SYMPTOMS – are critical. Action this day.
Look at the data. Historic tables at e.g. England and Wales Precipitation Data.
Extreme weather is on the increase world-wide.
e..g Hurricane Mathew has 6 metre SLR surges. E.g. New Orleans floods
Single extreme events are up 40% in the last 40 years – caused by warmer seas.

PERSUADE GOVERNMENTS
Climate Change Act.
Only 27 MPs out of 650 have science degrees
BUT – Governments have cooperated to fix the Ozone holes over the Poles.
In 1988 Margaret Thatcher supported the Royal Society’s work on global warming.

END – Prof Cox said “If this were a BBC programme I would have to provide Climate-Sceptic balance – but it isn’t, so I won’t” Cheers from the 600 audience.

(I sent in a question – How fast are the ice-caps melting. What is the timetable? – It wasn’t tabled. Physicists tell me that no-one has yet figured out how to calculate it)

More: http://sci-fi-future-fact-fiction.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/pope-president-600-scientists-meltdown.html


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